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how to derive pert formula. An optimistic estimate the most likely estimate and a pessimistic estimate. Variance np1 p The probability mass function PMF is.
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BETA probability distribution is what works behind PERT. If A P 1 r n n t then A P 1 1 n r n t we basically just took the reciprocal of r n and put a 1 on top again to make it equivalent Now set n r m and substitute. These numbers are added together and divided by six.
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So If we are allowed. E TOPT 4 x TLIEKLY TPESS 6 At the same time the possible variance V of the estimate is calculated as below. Put them together and this gives you the formula for k. The PERT distribution uses the mode or most likely parameter to generate the shape parameters v and w.
